Beyond Optimization: Food Acquisition Strategies And Poverty Dynamics Under Institutional Fragility In Mali

Abstract

Using data from the “Enquête Modulaire Permanente auprès des Ménages (EMOP) and a pseudo-panel  methodology, this study examines how food acquisition strategies shape poverty dynamics in post-conflict  Mali. Multinomial logit, random effects probit, and Cox proportional hazards models assess poverty entry,  exit, and duration across four strategies. Poverty is pervasive, 81.9% of households face food poverty and  71.9% multidimensional poverty. Despite 71.5% of households relying on market-based strategies, market  dependence does not reliably facilitate poverty escape. Subsistence and mixed strategies improve sustained  poverty exit, while gift-based transfers accelerate escape despite limited prevalence. Female-headed  households exit poverty faster, challenging conventional vulnerability narratives. Overall, the findings  suggest that food strategies in fragile contexts reflect adaptive responses to institutional breakdown rather  than optimization behavior, calling for context-sensitive, temporally differentiated social protection  policies.